Fantasy Football: Three must-draft quarterbacks being selected outside the top 12

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa’s overall team environment has also significantly better this offseason.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith: Smith’s downfield-passing skills are exhibited prominently in Seattle new offense formation.

Elite NFL quarterbacks now tend to carry a high growth rate in fantasy football each season while a lot of signal-callers with outcomes of a predictable QB1 can be found outside of the top-12 for this position.

The write-up below analyzes three NFL quarterbacks who are currently on the waiver wire as the QB13 or worse in both half-points-per-reception and full PPR regulations.

quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailaga is drafted as the QB14 in half-PPR and PPR formats because of the increased team-level conditions after his decent 2023 NFL season where he landed six games as the QB10 or better. Tagovailoa is a QB1 of relative consistency but only if the right matchup is met. His 87. 4 or PFF overall rating ranked the seventh best among 32 quarterbacks who played at least 475 snaps in the 2023 season.

Miami re-signed four of five linemen returning and added a huge upgrade at center getting former Titans center Liam Eichenberg who had a 45. 9 PFF pass blocking grade in Eichenberg’s place, they signed former Titans center Aaron Brewer who racked up 73. 1 PFF pass-blocking grade. They consider the pass-blocking efficiency, for which Fitzpatrick’s team had the PFF rating of 30 while the other team was ranked 10th. Tackles and guards in Miami have jointly averaged a 68. 5 Percentage of NFL tackles and guards rank at 15 or worse in PFF pass-blocking grade.

Chris Grier the General manager of Miami managed to strengthen an already-impressive offence with the signing of WR Odell Beckham Jr. , and TE Jonnu Smith in free agency as well as drafting RB Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Comparing the 2023 stats of 85 NFL wide receivers and tight ends who received at least 65 targets in the season, Beckham rated 36th in PFF receiving grade earning 77. Third, it points out that 3 yards after the catch per reception are ranked third.

Wright earned a 74. 4 PFF receiving grade puts him in the 7th out of 40 Power Five running back with targets of more than 25. Smith and Wright are good schematic fits as disclosed by “Three TE1 breakouts for 2024”and “Committee backfields to target in 2024”.

The Dolphins’ 2023 defense started with five of its best defenders and paying attention to the passing game to injured reserve and several other key pieces left for other teams in free agency. This weakened depth to an extent that Grier had to spend in free agency edge rusher Shaquil Barrett, interior defender Calais Campbell, linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. , linebacker Jordyn Brooks, safety Jordan Poyer, and cornerback Kendall Fuller while was able to draft rushers Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara in the first and fourth rounds of the 2024 NFL Season respectively.

Barrett earned an 82. 6 PFF pass rush grade in 2023 to get ranked 22nd out of 81 NFL defensive linemen with 380-plus pass-rushing snaps, while Campbell ranked 57th, with 68. 5 mark. Taking it from 69 NFL linebackers who have played at least 230 coverage snaps, Walker was 76. 6 PFF coverage grade ranked 12th, while Brooks’ 58. 5 PFF coverage grade ranked 45th. Poyer recorded a 70. 5 PFF coverage grade to make him 23rd of 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps, and Fuller scoring an 82. 8 The aforementioned PFF coverage grade contributed to ranking of the ninth out of 63 NFL cornerbacks with at least 425 coverage snaps.

Because Fuller was signed, No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey is expected to go back to shadow coverage after sitting out in 2023. His 65. MNF zero PFF coverage grade was the second worst among 72 NFL cornerbacks with minimum of 395 coverage snaps.

The 2024 defense should also maintain an excellent pass rush and build on the 2 retVal that was ranked below the 2023 defense, 19th. Resulting in a 0% interception per coverage target rate, the Redskins consistently took the ball back to Miami’s stellar offense. Miami Dolphins offense was seventh in expected points added per play at 0. 048 and the scoring drive percentage at 41. 1 percent last season, sixth in positive EPA at 46. 5 percent, fifth in success rate at 37. 3 percent and second best in the explosion pass plays rate at 19. 1 percent.

Thus, of all the 33 NFL quarterbacks with 270+ dropbacks, Tua Tagovailoa sat at the 7th position in big-time-throw rate at 5. 8%, and in the 5th place in the completion rate of 62. 8% and yards per passing attempt at 8. 1 seconds; past the sticks throwing rate second at 46. 3%, and time in the pocket to throw at His 88. Including this statistic with passing grade ‘6’ in PFF passing grade likewise ranked the player No. 1 on the overall scorecard.

Tagovailoa earned 38 rushing attempts placing him only 22nd in QB rushing attempts while his 2. With 6 yds per rushing attempt ranked him 31st and while he was not a top-shelf QB1 through opponents, he was locked to that matchup based tier.

Tagovailaga is a can’t-miss, matchup-dependent high-stakes QB1 who is technically outside the top 12 of QBs.

QB, California, Bears

The rookie Williams joins the NFL’s best environment for the QBs because the team runs the most favorable offense that entails the dual-threat right from Williams himself, in addition to facing a less-stiff, more-fantasy-friendly schedule. He is only available in both formats as the QB17 but should be putting up QB1 numbers on the regular especially in the last seven weeks of the fantasy football season. Williams’ 92. Overall PFF grades over the past two seasons at USC were 7th and an identical 7th, which placed him 4th out of 35 Power Five QBs with at least 1. Football Reference scrambles data to count all of his games; adjusting for that issue puts his Adjusted QBR at 52.

Williams blindside protection has one of the leagues better trios Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Ryan Bates. When sorting the 105 total tackles and guards with at least 700 offensive snaps, Jones scored a 71. This puts the PFF overall grade at 46 th and Jenkins at 74. 5 figure ranks 33rd. Bates earned a 78. 7 Career was overall graded 7 with the PFF as a backup of the Buffalo Bills last year.

Information about the offense’s superlative in the pass-catching group can be gained from the article “3 must-draft rookie quarterbacks & ambiguous backfield to target in 2024” and “ranked. ”

The ideas marked as NFL-ready passing profile and QB1 rushing profile belong to Williams and are capable of framing an elite quarterback. Looking at some of the indicators that are a measure of quarterback play, among 36 Power Five QBs who had at least 600 dropbacks in the two seasons, though, he was thirteenth in turnover-worthy-play rate at 2. 6 percent, fifth-best overall in big-time throw rate at 6. 1 percent and fourth in completion rate at 67. 2 percent as well as boasting third best passing yards-per His 90. 5 PFF passing grade is the average of five.

Comparing Williams to other 30 Power Five QBs with more than 115 rush attempts over the last two seasons, Williams is tied for No. 13 in yards after contact per rush attempt with 3. 0 Yards and is tied for No. 9 in explosive rush attempts with 44 while being ranked No. 6 in first down plus TD conversion rate at 41. 1 percent, and is third in missed tackles His 87. The quantity assessment for the PFF is the 9th position in the aspect of rushing grade.

The doubts made earlier about Seahawks and new Chicago’s offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s favored tempo are irrational. That Seattle’s 995 regular-season plays were fewer than any other league team would not seem to reflect Waldron’s intent; instead, it was probably due to the Seahawks’ third-down conversion rate of 36. Anytime from 2021 to 2023, Seattle’s situation-neutral pace, pass, and no-huddle rates normally occupied a position in the upper-third of the NFL ratings, according to Establish The Run’s pace guru, Pat Thorman.

Williams should continue to be deployed by Waldron as the offense’s center, which is amplified by Chicago’s remaining games. Chicago is set for a passionate fantasy football schedule against five squads that ranked 10th or better in EPA per play and six more that ranked No. 11-21. The final three teams are the Carolina Panthers the Washington Commanders and the New England Patriots who all had management and/or play calling changes in the off-season.

Seven games left on the fantasy schedule are matches with four top-five teams, as well as the two games against Minnesota Vikings (ranking no. 14) and the Week 17 championship fantasy football game with the team that Waldron used to coach in Seattle (ranked no. 10).

Williams remains a very popular option among the win-now GMs since he can be often acquired outside the top 12 QBs.

He QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Having a bounce back season could be expected from Smith who will be playing in new OC Ryan Grubb’s air raid offense that heavily utilizes downfield passing and got abundance of weapons at the receiving end while having a favourable fantasy schedule. It can be found as the QB24 in both standard and compact versions and Smith is one of this vitamin’s suppliers. His 83. 5 PFF overall grade in 2023 this places her on the 13th rank over the 32 other NFL quarterbacks who played at least 475 snaps.

This is explained in article “3 TE1 breakout candidates for 2024” Grubb’s regular season offense contributed to the third most regular season passing attempts among the seventy power five teams of the past two seasons. Across the entire season and playoffs, the unit ranked right in the middle ofine the league in plays per drive, coming in at 13 with an average of 6.

Grubb’s offense pruned downfield much more deeply and unceasingly than the 2022-23 offense did, even though it was Smith’s top strength.

The following table shows and compares the target-depth data of 2022-23 Smith with 2022-23 starting quarterback Grubb’s Michael Penix Jr.

An increase in downfield opportunities is expected and can be of great benefits to Seattle’s starting wide receivers. Thus, out of 69 studied NFL wide receivers who have had at least 30 targets with 10 plus yards in 2023, it is Seattle’s No. 1 wide receiver D. K. Metcalf ranked the 10th in the YPR (24. 8), and the 5th in YAC/R (6. 8). His 94. 5 Depending on the sort, it situated him fifth from 32 in PFF receiving grade on qualifying targets. The 32-year-old wide receiver Tyler Lockett enters the September yet still passed the grading test as a downfield target earner, possessing the 86. 4 Receiving grade from PFF on qualifying targets.

Second-year slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a lot to gain from the change after struggling immensely during his 2023 rookie season.

The table below contrasts the target-depth data for the next year, which Smith-Njigba is expected to achieve in 2023 with data of the Washington wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan for 2022 to 2023 slot targets.

Smith-Njigba (6’0”, 196 lbs) fills a similar slot in the WR room as Polk (6’2”, 204 lbs) and McMillan (6’1”, 192 lbs) as a contemporary slot receiver in the NFL.

Further, in the breakout tight end article mentioned above, it is safe to anticipate that Seattle tight end Noah Fant will play constructively in Grubb’s fantasy favorable No. 1 tight end position. Fant’s 64. 6 PFF overall grade in 2023 ranked twenty-ninth out of the thirty-three NFL tight ends with at least 535 snaps in the offense.

The high number of pass attempts is accompanied by high quality of the performances faced by the Seahawks’ offence. Seattle has faced seven opponents produced by this model against the top 10 teams in EPA per play and an additional four opponents from the 14 to 21 st ranked teams. New England Patriots, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and Chicago are Seattle’s remaining five, and four faced considerable offensive changes with either hiring new coordinator or getting new signal callers.

Smith is among the top quarterbacks that teams cannot avoid when drafting while not being in the best 12 quarterbacks.