Fantasy Football 2024 Predictions for the most confusing RB situations in the NFL

Probably no phrase evokes fear in fantasy football managers more than “running back by committee. ” This depth chart decision occurs when the team opts for several different running backs in the offense rather than utilizing one prominent back who receives the lion’s share of the touches.

Committees are hell in fantasy football as most of the time we do not have much information concerning the actual number of carries a specific RB in a team will get. Thus in this article, I will take a look at some of the more murky and laden running back positions on the NFL to get a clearer understanding of the players worth watching in the rest of the off-season.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins’ have what can be considered as quite an unusual running back setup. Traditionally, you would understand the expected lead running back the following year to be from the player who was an overall RB2 in fantasy football. But that is not the truth, which is that former journeyman Raheem Mostert (the RB23) on average is being drafted well after De’Von Achane (RB12) is projected to be a starter this season.

Achane was no slouch himself last year, carrying for 7 YPC in 11 healthy games. 8 yards per carry and was only the RB4 in terms of fantasy points per game. As of virtually any advanced per-snap running back statistic — rushing yards over expectation, yards after contact per attempt, breakaway run rate, and so on — Achane was easily the best running back in football, but it should be noted that he fell off from pre-injury form when he came back after missing time with with an MCL sprain in mid-season.

The analysts assume that in the second year Achane will be promoted to the primary Dolphins back; however, this has not been decided. However, as of right now, Mostert is even listed as the starter on this particular team’s unofficial depth chart in the Dolphins. The playing time of Achane and Mostert during the training camp will reveal how both will be shared during the regular training schedule. It would be hard for the Dolphins to run full risk of injury for Achane and give him the workload of three downs as he is very essential for the Dolphin’s offense. Of Mostert’s output last season, 39 of the 220 total yards of his production came due to his league high 21 touchdowns; and therein lies my caveat for this projection – Mostert was still utilized as Miami’s goal-line back last season.

Here are my divine prophecies of the situation in the Dolphins backfield in the year 2024.

Add all of that for Mostert, he should see enough touches to be considered a weekly RB2/FLEX guy, and with an ADP of 66, Mostert is a value. Mostert is, of course, 32 years old which indicates that he has certain health issues himself but because of that, he is drafted late enough to make his ceilings more valuable than his floors.

I do grasp the excitement over Achane as he is the kind of player who can have the big hitting breakout performance of a week’s winner. Although he may have the potential of a weekly stud, I don’t mind the pick as he is being selected wherever between 20th and 30th overall, whereas, I wouldn’t want him on my team as my ‘RB1. ’ For the first two rounds, I would try to link Achane with a high-ranked running back like Taylor or Barkley to guarantee that you will have steady plays every week on your team on this position.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans has a significant switch, issuing their franchise cornerstone Derrick Henry for ex-Cowboys running back, Tony Pollard this season. Pollard played for the Dallas Cowboys last season and was not very impressive, ranking as the RB22 in terms of FPPG, although he was drafted in the second round last summer.

Pollard showed the ability to rush for over 1,000 yards, but only gained four yards per carry and was a non-factor on goal line situations. He ranked outside of the top 25 among running backs in Y/A after contact and breakaway run % after ranking in the top three in both of those categories in 2022. The setback of fibula fracture in January 2023 might also have reduced Pollard’s J Nos of explosiveness and fans hope that he will revert to his role of big play maker that he was in fantasy football.

Pollard is a new addition at Tennessee along with sophomore Tyjae Spears. In his rookie season, Spears flew low under the radar as he accumulated 838 yards from scrimmage as the backup to the team’s star RB Derrick Henry. Huge Sanders especially excelled in this role; he received 70 targets on the season, which placed him at the ninth among all the running backs.

Below is how I expect all the Titans backfield players to perform in the year 2024.

Looking forward to 2024, Pollard and Spears should be in the normal splits with Pollard getting the two-down workload and Spears being responsible for the third-down and receiving duties. In fact, the truth is, I would not be pushing either of them nearly as hard in those roles in fantasy this year. Basically, Pollard is the RB29 in ADP and expects him to have another high-carry, low-efficiency season in a mediocre Titans offense this year.

As for Spears, he will probably be a PPR FLEX starter at this price of RB32, but I do not see him having any sort of ceiling with regards to volume. Nevertheless, it has to be observed in this case because during the training camp, Pollard or Spears may prove to be superior to the other thus becoming the unambiguous starter, but if Pollard and Spears share the workload, I do not have enough faith in Will Levis and the Titans offense to support either Pollard or Spears to get steady fantasy points.

Denver Broncos

They have, perhaps, the worst mess of backfields that one would witness in the entire National Football League. One can more or less expect that one of four different guys could be their starter this year — Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estimé.

Some of them are drafted the earliest among them Williams at the RB 31 and is listed as a starter in the Broncos unofficial depth chart. Unfortunately, he was barely effective in the first season after recovering from a torn ACL; Dalton was limited to 774 rushing yards on 217 carries , and it was evident that he had lost his ability to shed tackles.

Perine focused solely as the pass-receiver for the Broncos in the previous season where he recorded 50 receptions of 455 yards. From practice scouting the Denver Broncos, it appears at least one of the two, williams or Perine, will be released prior to the beginning of the season. I would assumed that Perine would be the one to be released instead, for the fact that he is older by five years than Williams and his absence would cut the Broncos’ expenses by at least $1. 8 million.

McLaughlin primarily filled the role of change of pace back last year. He was receiving around 4-5 carries per game and he should be receiving the same amount in the year 2024. Rookie Estimé is a 221-pound bowling ball who was Notre Dame’s big-play machine in the fifth round of this year’s NFL draft. It is very rare for end-of-draft rookie running backs like Estimé to get early touches, though I for one would not be astonished to discover him become more involved as the season progresses.

Frankly, I did not predict that backfield of the Broncos to be like this in 2024.

They released Perine, and thus go into the season with Williams as the assumed starter while McLaughlin returns to the change-of-pace back again like it was in the last year. However, if Williams fails to excel, it is fairly clear that the Broncos won’t hesitate to bench him for Estimé, who appears to be the archetypal two down back and goal-line vulture.

I will continue to monitor Broncos training camp of the next several weeks to see how it will indeed go. Regarding your fantasy drafts, a general guideline for sorting out these fuzzy running back committees is to simply take the back who goes the latest in drafts. This is especially the case for a below average offense like Denver, as even in the best case scenario the starter in this offense will not be a weekly top-10 guy.

From that conference logic, it is expected that the client shall desire Estimé as the current RB65 in drafts.

Dallas Cowboys

In Dallas, I see Pollard and Spears as Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle where Dowdle is a rotation off Elliott. I can deal with drafting Elliott as a receiver at his current average draft position of RB36 as he was good with the Patriots last year and should see improved touchdown fortunes in this high octane offense.

Washington Commanders

In Washington, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are expected to be an almost 50/50 split as a low-cost imitation of what the Lions have in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I am not interested in having Robinson (RB28) or Ekeler (RB35) on my fantasy team this year as I don’t foresee the Commanders offence to do well with rookie Jayden Daniels.

Cleveland Browns

The dynasty in Cleveland, another area of concern: Nick Chubb’s health. He was put to the PUP list before training camp, and so he might not be fit to start the first game of the season. If that is the case backup Jerome Ford would be a starting running back in fantasy, with Kareem Hunt no longer part of the squad.